Inadequate Rainfall Anticipated in East Africa During the ‘Long Rains’ Season
By Gift Briton
Most East African regions are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the March to May rainfall season, also known as the long rains season, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Predictions and Applications Centre (ICPAC) predicts.
The long rainy season is critical, especially for the equatorial part of the Greater Horn of Africa region and contributes up to 60% of the annual rainfall in many parts. The amount of rainfall experienced during this season hugely impacts food security in the region as most agricultural practices, including the most rampant smallholder farming, happen at this time.
As highlighted in the ICPAC forecast, much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern and north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, western South Sudan, southern and western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania will most likely receive less rainfall during the 2025 long rains period.
Speaking during the official launch of the forecast in Ethiopia, Dr Abdi Fidar, the Officer-in-Charge at ICPAC, noted: “As the IGAD region faces increasing climate variability and extremes—droughts, floods, and rising temperatures—platforms like the Greater Horn of Africa Outlook Forums (GHACOFs) are essential for building a shared understanding of risks and fostering collaboration to mitigate their impacts.”
According to the forecast, some regions such as most parts of Tanzania, eastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia are however expected to receive wetter normal conditions during the season, with the seasonal rainfall exceeding 200 mm in south-western Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
“The theme of this forum, Climate Services for Closing the Early Warning Gap Together, underscores the critical role of actionable, timely, and accurate climate information in bridging gaps in preparedness and response,” Dr Abdi Fidar added.
ICPAC’s temperature forecast indicates a higher likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, with the highest probabilities (more than 75%) over Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia, and northern Kenya.
According to the organization, the predicted climatic conditions for the long rainy season are likely to have gender-differentiated impacts on the affected populations, with more adverse effects expected to be pronounced among women, children, older persons, and persons with disabilities.
ICPAC urges all stakeholders to take proactive steps to reduce these impacts on the most vulnerable populations.
Motumma Mekasa, State Minister and Advisor to the Minister of Water and Energy for the Government of Ethiopia, highlighted IGAD’s key role in fostering regional integration and collaboration, stating: “We acknowledge and commend IGAD’s role as a regional institution promoting integration and collaboration among member states. In addition to its significant contributions to peace and security, IGAD’s work in coming up with initiatives geared towards mitigating and combating the effects of climate change is essential in making steps towards ensuring sustainable development and safeguarding livelihoods in this region. We look forward to IGAD’s support in championing the institutionalization of climate services across the region.”