East Africa Brace for Extreme Weather
By Gift Briton
An intense mix of heavy rains and extreme heat is anticipated across East Africa in the next seven days, with experts warning of widespread impact.
According to the latest forecast by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)’s Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), rainfall that could trigger emergencies is expected in parts of south-western and northern Kenya, Rwanda, southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, northern Tanzania, northern Uganda, and south-eastern South Sudan. This level of rain is rare and can quickly overwhelm natural and man-made drainage systems.
Higher-than-usual rainfall is also expected across parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, northern and western Tanzania, as well as central to western Kenya and central to southern Ethiopia.
With the risk of flash floods growing as intense rains sweep across the region, ICPAC has flagged southwestern and northern Kenya, Rwanda, southern Ethiopia and parts of southern Somalia, northern Tanzania, northern Uganda and south-eastern South Sudan as hotspots for sudden floods. For communities in low-lying areas or near rivers, this can mean destroyed homes, washed-out roads, and sudden displacement.
On the other hand, less than usual rainfall is expected over parts of central to southern Tanzania, eastern Kenya and central Somalia.
While some areas will be soaked, others will swelter. Temperatures above 32℃ are forecasted in south-western Sudan, and most of the region will experience moderate to high temperatures between 20–32℃.
However, the real concern lies in places that are set to be warmer than usual. Parts of Eritrea, Djibouti, Tanzania, eastern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia are expected to experience heat above their seasonal averages.
Eastern Kenya, parts of Sudan, South Sudan, southern Somalia, and coastal Tanzania will be especially vulnerable to elevated heat stress, a condition where the body struggles to cool itself due to high temperatures and humidity.
Simultaneously, pockets of cooler-than-usual temperatures are forecast in parts of central to northern Sudan, South Sudan, northern Uganda, north-eastern Kenya, and western Ethiopia.
These weather patterns are not just short-term inconveniences. They affect food production, health systems, water access, and infrastructure. The forecast paints a complex picture, one that demands serious attention from both governments and the public.
The weather is becoming more unpredictable and more extreme. Preparing for it is not just the job of weather services and government agencies. It calls for community-level awareness, stronger infrastructure, and investment in early warning systems.